Trump Meets with Zelenskyy, Expands
Presidents Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet in 2019 (Wikimedia Commons).
U.S. President Donald Trump met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Washington on October 17 to discuss pathways to peace, disappointing Zelenskyy by backtracking on his offer to provide Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles. Yet, days later, on October 22, Trump imposed sanctions on two of Russia’s top oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, calling on Moscow to agree to an immediate ceasefire, according to Politico.
Zelenskyy hoped to secure U.S. commitments for Tomahawk missiles during his meeting with Trump, according to Axios. However, Trump, who had held a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin the day before, said that sending Tomahawks would undermine diplomatic efforts to end the war and deplete the U.S. stockpile, according to PBS. Trump also cited the long training period required to operate the Tomahawks, which require at least a year of intensive training, according to Politico.
The oil sanctions, which come into effect on November 21, reflect Trump’s increasing frustration with Putin’s lack of cooperation on ceasefire negotiations, according to the Council on Foreign Relations. Trump has wavered continuously in his stance on Ukraine, prompting skepticism regarding the real effectiveness of the oil sanctions. Trump asserted in September that Ukraine should reclaim all its territory from Russia, marking a dramatic shift away from his conciliatory approach to Putin. However, after his October 17 meeting with Zelenskyy, Trump said that the countries should “stop the lines where they are,” ceding occupied Ukrainian territory to Russia, according to Reuters.
Some critics argue that the new oil sanctions will not have a significant effect on the Russian economy, will be difficult to enforce, or are another example of Trump’s conciliatory approach to Putin. Putin said on Thursday that the oil sanctions will not significantly impact Russia’s economy, according to China Daily. Experts have emphasized that the sanctions are unlikely to drive Putin to agree to a ceasefire, as Russia would still be able to sell oil globally. In the meantime, oil prices rose more than 5 percent in the United States and almost 4 percent globally overnight, according to Al Jazeera.
The difficulty of enforcing the sanctions will also undermine their potential impact on Russia, according to the Atlantic Council. Russia can continue using its shadow fleet of oil tankers to evade policing and maintain its oil trade operations, according to NPR. Additionally, most companies that purchase crude oil from Russia do so through intermediaries, which allows them to create new companies to circumvent the sanctions.
Critics argue that the new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil may actually benefit Russia, since Washington is not legally obligated to impose penalties on foreign firms under the current terms, according to analyst Phillips O’Brien. In practice, O’Brien notes, the policy grants a four-week grace period during which foreign companies can freely purchase Russian oil before any sanctions take effect, effectively giving Moscow short-term economic relief. Trump’s “threats towards Russia are invariably BS. We have had 9 months of continual threats—with almost no follow through,” Phillips writes.