Azerbaijan: Incumbent Aliyev Wins Fifth Presidential Term In “Restrictive” Election

President Aliyev of Azerbaijan has come under criticism for his use of political oppression as a tool to win the 2024 election. (Via Flickr)

Voters in Azerbaijan went to the polls on February 7 to reelect President Ilham Aliyev of the New Azerbaijan Party. According to the Central Election Commission, Aliyev won a sweeping 92.12 percent of the popular vote. The election and its results have sparked controversy within the Azerbaijani and international communities, with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe stating that it was conducted “in a restrictive environment,” and that “the incumbent was not meaningfully challenged.” The election was initially supposed to take place in October 2025 but was moved to February 7 by Aliyev for reasons his administration has not formally stated. 

Analysts attribute the opaque conduct surrounding the election as well as its heavily skewed results to Azerbaijan’s political and historical context. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, a series of authoritarian presidents has ruled Azerbaijan, which has gained a reputation for widespread political oppression and detaining political prisoners. According to Human Rights Watch, Azerbaijan had approximately 50 political prisoners in detention in May 2022. This number has likely grown since then, especially as a result of Azerbaijan’s war with Armenia. The Azerbaijani police force has also been known to use various torture tactics and arbitrarily arrest political figures. 

The practices of Aliyev and his dominant New Azerbaijan party have raised alarms at home and abroad. Political protests frequently face violent suppression at the hands of national security forces. The government of Azerbaijan also came under fire after the election of Aliyev in 2013, when it released the results of the election prior to voting. That being said, it comes as no surprise that Aliyev faced a lack of opponents in the recent election, as the political climate of Azerbaijan leaves few opportunities for a credible opposition to form. Though very limited in power and influence, there are two main opposition parties in Azerbaijan: the People’s Front of Azerbaijan and the Musavat. These parties did not participate in the 2024 election, furthering claims of political suppression and a lack of meaningful opposition.

That the Azerbaijani government moved up the election from October to February may also be explained by the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between an Armenian separatist group and Azerbaijan. Disputes over the territory resurfaced in September 2023 when Azerbaijan launched an offensive into Nagorno-Karabakh that led to thousands of casualties and the displacement of approximately 100,000 ethnic Armenians in the area. This led the UN high commissioner for human rights to issue a statement calling for full respect of human rights law. The dispute officially concluded at the start of 2024, when Azerbaijani forces officially took control of the region from the Armenian separatists. Aliyev’s success in the invasion caused a surge in public support for his administration, which likely prompted him to move up the election. 

As expected, the Azerbaijani election of 2024 was less than suspenseful. It is unlikely that this will change in the coming years considering the Aliyev regime’s history of nepotism, suppression of opposition, and political cronyism. For the remainder of his term, it is likely that Aliyev will continue to utilize violent political tactics and take an aggressive stance towards the full integration of Nagorno-Karabakh into Azerbaijan, policies that will continue to have negative humanitarian consequences in and around the country.