Return of a Dictator, or Continuation of Democracy? Prabowo Subianto’s Victory Sends Mixed Messages about Indonesia’s Future

Prabowo Subianto was elected president in Indonesia’s February elections. (Wikimedia Commons)

Though he may be 72, Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto has finally succeeded in his decade-long quest to become Indonesia’s President. Winning about 60 percent of the vote, the newly remade “cuddly grandfather” figure has proclaimed victory over two much younger ex-provincial governors, positioning himself as a loyal successor to the outgoing President, term-limited Joko Widodo. 

Widodo, who has defeated Prabowo twice in presidential contests, is known as “calm and conciliatory” as opposed to the “outspoken and confrontational” Prabowo, whose temper did not seem to be a deterrent in this race. While Cornell Professor Tom Pepinsky describes Prabowo as being “‘more comfortable as a world leader” than Widodo, many have nonetheless expressed concerns over the new boss.

These concerns do not derive from the geopolitics of the region, rife with competition between Western and Chinese blocs, but rather from Prabowo’s controversial human rights record, which rears its head at a dangerous time for the country. Indonesia is seeing an increase in nepotism and cronyism while the country’s anti-corruption commission is suffering from a loss of independence. Once banned from entering the United States, Prabowo served as a special forces commander under former military dictator Suharto, his father-in-law. During Suharto’s rule, Prabowo was responsible for human rights abuses during the occupation of East Timor, as well as the kidnapping of pro-democracy activists. The president-elect is well aware of his sordid history, even joking that he “used to chase after” these activists, but he has stated that he “apologized,” breaking with, albeit minimizing, his past actions.

Nonetheless, Prabowo may find the art of governing difficult. While Widodo’s conciliatory persona allowed him to win the support of more than 80 percent of Parliament, Prabowo’s own party, Gerindra, may only win around 13 percent of seats, forcing the strongman into a difficult position with negotiations sure to lie ahead. Meanwhile, the Partai Demokrasi Indonesia Perjuangan (PDIP) party, which once backed Widodo, may prove a stubborn opposition. Despite the PDIP nominating their own candidate, Ganjar Pranowo, the popular outgoing president controversially placed his son, Gibran Rakabuming, on the ticket as Prabowo’s running mate, shoring up the alliance while nominally retiring from the political arena himself. Meanwhile, PDIP leader Megawati Sukarnoputri, less keen on the alliance between Prabowo and Widodo, may hinder Prabowo’s attempts at continuing Widodo’s priorities like infrastructure projects. Regardless of the outcome, the drama has already set a poor precedent. Gibran was initially too young to be elected Vice-President, but the Indonesian Supreme Court, whose members include Widodo’s brother-in-law, nonetheless declared him eligible.

However, some believe Prabowo has changed into a genuine small-d democrat.  Budiman Sujatmiko, a once-imprisoned critic of Suharto, has become a spokesman for Prabowo, stating that both autocrat and radical have “moved to the middle” and pointing out the need to be “pragmatic as well as ethical.” On the other hand, some see Budiman as a turncoat and fear that their new president is merely putting on the guise of a committed democrat.

Many of the kidnapped activists remain missing. Every Thursday, their elderly parents continue to hold weekly protests in Jakarta, laying blame squarely at Prabowo’s feet. Prabowo denies these accusations, as well as suggestions that he instigated riots against the Chinese minority in 1998. Regardless, BBC reporter Jonathan Head recalls the commander threatening to send mobs against ethnically-Chinese businessmen during the Asian financial crisis. After his 2019 electoral defeat, similar mobs came out in force to riot in protest of an election they claimed was stolen, leading to ten deaths.

Though some believe these developments jeopardize Indonesian democracy, in a country where two Presidents prior to Prabowo have been elected, re-elected, and given up power after free elections, the system seems unlikely to fail so suddenly. While Prabowo’s election may confirm the continued power of old elites, his ability to win over six of the nine activists whose kidnappings he admits culpability for suggests that his brash attitude—if not demonstrative of his propensity for violence—is exactly what the Indonesian people want. In a nation where former Governor of Jakarta Anies Baswedan, another candidate in this year’s election, once won an election on anti-Christian and anti-ethnic Chinese sentiment, perhaps Prabowo, who has somehow made amends with his old enemies, offers some chance at a stable democracy.