Tunisia Parliamentary Elections

On Sunday morning, Tunisians began voting in parliamentary elections to elect a five-year legislative assembly. This vote will elect the first parliament in Tunisia since the ouster of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in 2011, who ruled the country for almost 24 years. Many polling stations recorded a high turnout, with estimates at approximately 60% of the 5.2 million registered voters. To put that into perspective, voter turnout at the 2012 U.S. elections were 57.5%.

The historic importance of this election was emphasized by Prime Minister Mehdi Jomaa, stating that, “the spotlight is on us and the success of this vote is a guarantee for the future”. Even President Barack Obama described the election as an “important milestone in the country’s historic political transition”.

Tunisia has been considered one of the few, if only, success stories of the Arab Spring, undergoing a liberalization of the political landscape, participation of new political forces, a rise in the level of civil and political rights, and the adoption of a new constitution. Moreover, independent actors at the social level, such as the Tunisian General Labour Union (UGTT), have been playing a crucial role in shaping political developments and engaging in national dialogue.

However, the situation in Tunisia is not as promising as many commentators paint it out to be. The political landscape is largely polarized between the main Islamist party, Ennahda, and the secularist party Nidaa Tounes, which has many elements tied to the Ben Ali regime. Although the secular-political Islam divide is clear between the two parties, their economic policies are largely similar – with both parties debating over who can implement such policies more effectively.

Unlike the first election in 2011, where the role of Islam dominated political discourse, the state of the economy is at the forefront of this election. Investment is heavily concentrated in urban centres at the expense of the development of rural areas, and the unemployment rate averages 15% nationally bur reaches as high as 30% in non-coastal regions. Access to water is 97% in the capital, Tunis, but drops to 40% in rural areas in the north-west of the country. On a more general level, the Tunisian government signed a deal with the IMF last year to obtain a two-year $1.78 billion loan program with certain conditions. The government cut fuel subsidies in July, imposed new taxes, and devalued the currency, leading to an increase in the price of imports – disproportionately hitting the poor.

The importance of the economy is so prominent that according to a research conducted by the Pew Research Center, 73% of Tunisians think that a strong economy is the most important thing for a country, whereas only 25% believe that it is a democratic government.

With both parties pursuing similar policies, many Tunisians do not see any viable economic alternative. While the left-wing Popular Front coalition presents itself as an alternative to the political polarization, pledging to protect marginalized residents and improve the country’s human rights record, it is not expected to gain many seats in this  election.

In addition to concerns about the economy, in recent years, security concerns have captured the political arena. The coordinator of the Popular Front coalition, Chokri Belaid, was assassinated by Islamist militants in February 2013, followed by his successor Mohamed Brahmi the following July. This caused a national outrage, with many blaming the ruling Ennahda party for either tacit involvement in or incompetence for ensuring security of political figureheads. Moreover, there have been arbitrary arrests of political opponents, which raises questions concerns about the state of human rights in Tunisia, and its similarities to the Ben Ali days. In conjunction with political assassinations by hardline Islamist groups, radical Islamism and jihadism is on the rise to a certain extent within the country. Groups such as Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and Ansar al-Sharia have gained traction in the region, and the instability in Libya threatens to seep into Tunisia.

With the deteriorating situation regarding the economy and general security, this election could not come at a more important time in Tunisia’s history. However, given such a polarized political atmosphere, Tunisia’s status as a ‘success story’ of the Arab Spring may yet be called into question.