Corruption Complicate's Lula's Return

While for many members of Brazil’s Workers Party (PT) former president Lula da Silva is a clear choice for reelection in 2018, new allegations of corruption may hurt his chances and risk the future of the party he represents. He is the most senior official in a long line of Brazilian politicians whom Operation Lava Jato, the government probe conducting investigations into the country’s massive corruption scandal, has suspected of illegal activities. According to a report by Reuters, recent allegations tie Mr. da Silva to a lavish beachside apartment in the São Paulo resort town of Guarujá, part of a complex that federal prosecutors are investigating for money laundering and bribery to PT officials. Mr. da Silva has admitted to frequenting the apartment with his wife, but he denies ownership; the investigation against him, however, claims differently. The divisive issue sparked riots in São Paulo on Wednesday after news broke that a planned questioning of Mr. da Silva had been suspended, with both his critics and supporters launching rocks and water bottles before succumbing to tear gas.

President da Silva—or Lula, as most call him—was elected in 2002 and served two terms in Brazil’s highest office until ceding power to his hand-picked successor, Dilma Rousseff, in 2011. The fast-paced economic growth Brazil saw under his presidency allowed him to leave office with the highest approval rating of any Brazilian president since the fall of military rule—83% according to a poll conducted by A Folha de São Paulo. President Obama echoed the sentiments of many when he greeted Mr. da Silva at the G20 Summit in 2009, calling him “the most popular politician in the world.”

This reputation, however, may not be enough to last him until 2018. While a 1997 constitutional amendment allows a president to run for a third term so long as it does not directly follow his first two, only 22% of Brazilians asked in a recent Datafolha poll plan to vote for him in 2018. Over the last two years, his disapproval rating has jumped from 17% to 47%, and the percentage of Brazilians who think of him as their best president has fallen from 57% to 39%.

Both his fall from favor and Rousseff’s own plummeting approval rating -  she hit a record low of 8% last August - have raised questions about the future of the Workers Party, with some seeing da Silva’s proposed candidacy as a last-ditch effort to stave off extinction. If President da Silva is innocent as he claims, he has nearly three years to convince the Brazilian people that he is still the man for the job. If investigative findings prove otherwise, however, the party that has guided Brazil through the twenty-first century could find itself lacking both a leader and a good reputation.