Noboa Requests Military Aid Ahead of Presidential Elections

Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa giving his inaugural speech in 2023. (Wikimedia Commons)

Ecuadorian president Daniel Noboa, currently campaigning for re-election on an aggressive security platform, announced on February 19th that Ecuador would ramp up requests for foreign military aid to fight the recent bump in gang violence in the country. 

Ecuador’s homicide rate rose from 6.85 per 100,000 people to 46.18 between 2019 and 2023, largely due to an increase in the trafficking of cocaine produced in Colombia and Peru. As a result, politicians have increasingly focused their attention on curbing this violence in recent years, with Noboa’s policies seeing moderate success, lowering the homicide rate to 38.76 last year.

This momentum, however, stalled this January when Ecuador recorded its deadliest month in history. In January, 762 murders were committed, two-thirds of which were in the coastal provinces of Guayas, Manabí and El Oro. With an election looming this April, and Noboa’s mandate largely riding on his ability to lower the homicide rate, this boost in violence is a troubling sign for his campaign.

After spending the first half of February campaigning, Noboa has announced his plan to respond to January’s rise in violence. He requested that international allies permit “the incorporation of special forces” with Ecuador’s security forces in operations targeting gangs and drug trafficking last Wednesday. Although the specific details of this request were left private, this will likely take the form of intelligence support, although armed combat assistance is also possible.

Critics worry that this increased commitment to an aggressive security policy will do little to fight crime, while violating human rights. Human Rights Watch argued last year that Noboa’s policies actually caused more violence than it stopped by empowering military officers with no policing experience to conduct police raids. 

In contrast to Noboa, opposition candidate Luisa Gonzalez has advocated for a balanced approach to improving security. Gonzalez advocates for increased social spending in provinces with high violence in hopes of lessening youth recruitment efforts by gangs there. A left-wing lawyer who represents the violence-afflicted province of Manabí in the National Assembly, Gonzalez was the runner-up to Noboa in 2023’s presidential election. Despite not polling well in the early stages of the current election, her support has grown steadily, and she finished only 0.3 percent below with Noboa in the first round. Since both candidates fell six percent short of the fifty percent threshold needed to win the presidency, this prompted a two-candidate runoff.

The only poll since the first round, conducted by TresPuntoZero, shows Gonalez with a four point lead just over a month out from the runoff. With momentum on his opponent’s side and time running out, Noboa’s success in reducing violence using foreign aid could be one of his few remaining hopes for reelection.