Zapad 2025: The War Games Testing Russo-Western Relations

Russia’s Zapad 2025 war games were held mere days after Russian drones flew over Poland, a NATO member (Wikimedia Commons).

Russia conducted the joint strategic exercise “Zapad” (“West”) with Belarus on September 12 to showcase its military might. United States troops observed these so-called “war games” for the first time since 2021, a year before the full mobilization of Russian forces into Ukraine. 

Held in the Barents Sea north of Russia, the exercises aimed to “improve military command and coordination in the event of an attack” on either country. Among the weapons Russia fired were Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles and Sukhoi Su-34 supersonic fighter-bombers. Although cited as “exclusively defensive” by both Moscow and Minsk, Zapad comes on the coattails of Russian drones appearing in Poland on September 9, some of which Poland shot down. 

As Poland is a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member, such an incursion could prompt members to invoke Article V of the North Atlantic Treaty, which enshrines collective defense. NATO later declared an “Eastern Sentry” defensive operation in response, continuing its long-held strategy of deterrence towards Russia.  What distinguished this exercise was the presence of United States troops in Belarus as observers during the war games.

Two United States military officers attended the exercises on September 14 as observers. Journalists filmed them shaking hands with Belarus’s Defense Minister, a scene Belarus is now using as propaganda. This marks a significant departure from past U.S. policy: three years ago, Washington publicly condemned Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko for his firm anti-democratic stance, placing heavy sanctions on the president’s regime and closing the U.S. embassy in Minsk. A week before the 2025 visit, U.S. presidential envoy John Cole announced a partial reversal of sanctions and plans to reopen the embassy. Lukashenko, in response, freed “dozens of political prisoners.” A Pentagon representative attributed the attendance of the officials to the thawing relations between the two countries. 

Not all countries have responded positively to Putin and Lukashenko’s actions. NATO countries remain on high alert since the incursion into Poland, with Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia closing their airspaces and borders with Belarus, at least for the duration of the drill; Poland also deployed 40,000 troops. The last time Moscow conducted these exercises was months before the invasion of Ukraine, when Russia used them as “a cover to build up its troops.” Russia’s latest drone incursion into Poland has also brought into question the safety of other neighboring airspaces. 

Analysts suggest several reasons why American officials may be thawing relations. Some suggest the interactions could be a sign of a warming association between Moscow and Washington, with Belarusian officials emphasizing the exercises’ location further from Poland’s border, a potential sign of “the growing détente with Trump.” Alternatively, this could be a gesture of goodwill towards Minsk. Recently, the U.S. lifted sanctions on state-owned airline Belavia. 

Addressing the issue directly, Lukashenko expressed hopes of good relations: “Let’s try to work out a global deal, just as Mr. Trump likes, a big deal.” However, exiled Belarusian political analyst Artyom Shraibman warned that: “Anyone who believes US engagement can meaningfully reduce Belarus’ dependence on Russia is delusional.” 

Another theory concerns incomplete information. It is important to emphasize that European powers in early 2022 did not believe that the full-scale invasion of Ukraine would occur, while American analysts repeatedly warned against it. 

Zapad is not only a show of military strength and potential threat, but also a signal of changing relations between the West and Russia and its allies. Leaders must now walk the fine line between “thawing relations” and redefining long-standing political norms.