ANALYSIS: Report Paints a Sobering Picture for the Future of Democracy

V-Dem Electoral Democracy Index, 2023. (Source: Wikimedia Commons)

The Varieties of Democracy Institute has released its annual report on the state of democracy in the world. It elucidates the widespread autocratization that has been taking place around the world since the beginning of the 21st century, which has culminated in autocracies outnumbering democracies for the first time in 25 years. 

The latest democracy report is out. The Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem), a political science research institute housed in Gothenburg, Sweden which quantifies and measures global levels of democracy, has released its annual assessment of the state of self-governance across the world – and its findings are sobering. 

Entitled “25 Years of Autocratization – Democracy Trumped?” the report notes that, for the first time in more than twenty years, there are more autocracies (91) than democracies (88), on the planet, presenting the worst outlook for democracy in the last 25 years. 

V-Dem’s assessment of what it has dubbed the “third wave of autocratization” –  the process by which a country’s regime grows more autocratic – is disconcerting. The share of the world’s population that is currently living in an autocratic country has skyrocketed in the past 20 years, from 49 percent in 2004 to 72 percent in 2024. This represents the highest level since 1978. Furthermore, over a third of the globe – 38 percent – reside in countries that are actively undergoing autocratization. 

The report cites three major forces driving the third wave of autocratization: the erosion of democracy within countries that have long been liberal democracies; the collapse of democracy within countries that democratized during the late 20th century; and the magnification of autocratization in states which are already autocracies. 

The authors observe that the current trajectory of autocratization represents the “worst of both worlds” for the future of democracy. Not only has the quality of democracy been degraded within states that continue to be classified as democracies, but authoritarianism within autocratic states has also grown increasingly entrenched. 

An especially concerning aspect of the current trend towards autocratization is the fact that large, populous, and wealthy countries are increasingly turning towards illiberal governance. The report notes that of the world’s five largest countries in terms of population – China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, and the United States – only one (the United States) is coded by V-Dem as a democracy, and none are trending in the direction of increasing democratization.

The report subdivides countries into various regime types. Electoral autocracies represent the most abundant type, containing about 46% of the world’s population. Electoral autocracies, exemplified by countries like Russia and El Salvador, feature regular elections with multiple parties, but these elections are neither free nor fair. Furthermore, electoral autocracies lack the essential elements that constitute a substantive democracy, including freedom of expression and an independent civil society. 

By contrast, liberal democracies have become the world’s least common regime type, constituting less than 12% of the world’s population, which is the lowest in 50 years. 

The authors note that while the number of electoral autocracies in the world has declined – from 64 in 2019 to 56 in 2024 – this should not necessarily be taken as a good sign, as the most pernicious regime type, closed autocracies, has increased from 22% of countries to 35%. Closed autocracies feature a complete absence of elections and wholly lack basic democratic freedoms. 

The number of countries actively undergoing autocratization is also increasing. There are 45 autocratizers cited in the 2024 report, up from only 25 in the 2021 report. The authors point out a grim statistic – of the 27 autocratizers that began as democracies at the start of their autocratization episode, only 9 remained democratic by the end of 2024, representing a 67 % fatality rate for democracies. 

The report distinguishes between two distinct types of autocratization – stand-alone and bell-turn. With stand-alone autocratization, democratic backsliding takes place in a country with a relatively stable regime type. By contrast, bell-turn autocratization takes place when autocratization directly follows from a recent period of democratization. 

Of the top 10 stand-alone cases of autocratization identified by V-Dem, eight of these were democracies before the autocratization began. As of 2024, only three of these eight countries – Greece, Mexico, and Peru – remain democracies. Four others – Hungary, India, Mauritius, and Serbia – are now classified as electoral autocracies, and one, Nicaragua, is now categorized as a closed autocracy. 

The report similarly identifies the top 10 bell-turn cases, nine of which were democracies at the beginning of the autocratization episode and only two of which, Armenia and Romania, remain democracies as of the writing of the report. Burkina Faso, Libya, Mali, and Niger have regressed completely to closed autocracies, while El Salvador, Georgia, and Indonesia are coded as electoral autocracies. 

What has caused autocratization across this diverse array of countries? 

The authors note that government censorship of the media was the top indicator of democratic decline in 2024, with cases of repression cited in 26 of the 45 autocratizing countries. In fact, the top three indicators of autocratization in 2024 – government censorship of the media, limits on academic and cultural expression, and limits on the freedom of discussion – are all related to the freedom of expression, which appears to be under particular threat in backsliding countries. Attacks on free and fair elections and repression of civil society are also characteristic of recent trends of autocratization. 

On the other hand, the report notes that 19 countries are actively democratizing, with nine coded as stand-alone democratizers and 10 coded as U-turns. Stand-alone democratizers see improvement in the nature of their regime following a period of stability in terms of their regime type, whereas U-turns experience a period of democratization following from a recent period of autocratization. 

Of the nine cases of stand-alone democratization, six – Fiji, Honduras, Montenegro, the Solomon Islands, the Seychelles, and Timor-Leste – began as autocracies, and all have successfully transitioned to democracy. The other three cases – the Dominican Republic, the Gambia, and Sri Lanka – all began as democracies and have experienced democratic deepening. 

The report also features ten U-turn cases. For four of these cases – Ecuador, Lesotho, the Maldives, and Zambia – the U-turn has restored the country to the level of democracy the country had before the preceding autocratization episode. For the other six cases – Benin, Bolivia, Brazil, Poland, Thailand, and Tunisia – the U-turn is ongoing, and democratic levels are yet to reach their original levels. 

Brazil, Ecuador, Lesotho, and Poland all exhibited “breakdown resilience,” meaning that they were able both stop and reverse the autocratization episode before it brought about a full-scale democratic breakdown. Bolivia, the Maldives, and Zambia are cases of “bounce-back resilience,” indicating that democracy broke down for a time, but was successfully restored. 

Just as a loss of freedom of expression was the primary indicator of autocratization in 2024, the enhancement of free expression is the central characteristic of many of 2024’s democratization episodes. Indeed, the authors highlight the fact that “freedom of expression is often the first to be attacked during autocratization, but also the first to improve during democratization.” In nearly two-thirds of the cases, government censorship efforts of the media have been reduced.

Furthermore, in about half of the democratizing countries, freedom of academic and cultural expression has increased, and the harassment of journalists has declined. 

Notably, while the United States is still coded as a liberal democracy within the 2024 report, the authors take several pages to call out the potential for democratic breakdown in the United States. The report was authored prior to the inauguration of President Donald Trump, and so the V-Dem Institute’s data does not account for recent developments in the United States since January 2025. However, analyzing the first six weeks of the second Trump administration, the authors note that “classic strategies of autocratizers seem to be in action” in the United States. 

The report pays particular heed to attacks on the role of law and the undermining of checks and balances in the United States, noting that attempts to diminish the power of judiciary and weaken mechanisms of accountability tend to indicate a slide towards autocratization. The report itself declines to comment as to whether the United States is headed towards democratic breakdown. 

However, the report’s primary author and the director of the Varieties of Democracy project, Staffan Lindberg, stated in March of 2025 that if the Trump administration continues along its current course, “the United States will not score as a democracy when we release [next year's] data…if it continues like this, democracy will not last another six months.” 

As sobering as V-Dem’s 2025 report is, the degradation of the world’s oldest democracy portends only worse news for the state of democracy report in 2026.