€25 billion EU-China Rail Line Stifled By Poland's Border Closure

Polish border guards patrol a barbed-wire fence on the Poland-Belarus border (Wikimedia Commons).

Poland closed its border with Belarus on September 11 due to security concerns, risking the shutdown of a €25 billion Europe-China rail freight corridor. 

The decision follows growing fears in Warsaw as Russia and Belarus conduct their joint military exercises, called “Zapad”, near the border. The Polish border has already been under significant pressure since 2021, when Belarus began pushing migrants into the EU, prompting Poland to build fences, deploy troops, and suspend some asylum procedures, according to The European Council on Refugees and Exiles. 

The timeline of the closure is still unknown. According to the Polish Interior Ministry, “[the measure] is in effect until further notice and is dictated by concerns for the safety of Polish citizens.” 

Euronews reported that the European Commission is “closely monitoring” the situation and is actively in contact with Polish authorities, though it has not yet assessed the full trade impact. Olof Gill, the EU Commission Deputy Chief Spokesperson, affirmed Warsaw’s justifications, commenting that “Any trade-related challenges that arise from such a security situation are happening because of Russia's brutal, illegal and unjustified war.”

The closure is said to stifle a railway line that transports €25 billion in goods annually between China and the European Union, according to Euronews. The South China Post reported that companies using the larger China-Europe Railway Express are already feeling the effects of this decision, with trains getting stuck at Belarusian terminals. Some carriers are considering shifting cargo back to slower sea routes. 

This indefinite closure poses serious economic implications for Poland. Patryk Szczotka, an associate with the Warsaw-based think tank Boym Institute, said “A prolonged closure could seriously disrupt the flow of goods, increase logistics costs and weaken Poland’s position as a major transit hub.” Likewise, recurring border issues may prompt China to explore alternative connections to Europe. Charles Chang, professor of finance at Fudan University in Shanghai, commented that “[this is why] China has been pushing the [Belt and Road Initiative] for 15 years… There are so many ways to get in and out.” These developments underscore the growing risks facing European trade infrastructure and highlight how security concerns can rapidly influence global supply chains.