Kambar-Ata-1: Hydropower Proposal Shifting Central Asia’s Water-Energy Balance

The Kurpsai Dam on the Naryn River in Kyrgyzstan (Ninaras, Wikipedia Commons).

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) announced on October 21 that it is considering providing up to $1.5 billion to finance Kyrgyzstan’s Kambar-Ata-1 hydropower project, a decision that could reshape the water-energy trade in Central Asia, according to Reuters.

Under the Soviet system, Kyrgyzstan released summer water for downstream irrigation and received winter energy from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, but the arrangement collapsed after 1991. Hydropower provides nearly 90 percent of Kyrgyzstan’s electricity, but storing water for winter energy conflicts with downstream farmers’ need for summer irrigation, according to The Times of Central Asia.

The delayed seasonal exchange has long created mistrust, as each side must deliver at different points in the year despite political tensions or variable water supply. In 2009, Uzbekistan shut off gas to Kyrgyzstan due to economic disputes, while low inflows in 2008–2009 caused blackouts in Kyrgyzstan and irrigation shortages downstream, per UzDaily.

Despite these challenges, leaders have more recently revived the cyclical energy trade. In September 2025, Kyrgyzstan pledged to release water next summer, while Kazakh and Uzbek leaders agreed to send energy back this winter through the spring of 2026, per The Times of Central Asia.

Kyrgyzstan relies heavily on regulating the Naryn river through the 1200-MW Toktogul dam, which generates 40 percent of its electricity through water storage in the summer and winter release, and a cascade of downstream dams, including Kurpsai and Tash-Kumyr. Yet increasingly low reservoir levels have prompted authorities to warn of imminent winter shortages. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have supported Kyrgyz energy expansion due to similar insufficiencies, according to The Diplomat. The Kambara-Ata-1 project, planned for further upstream of Toktogul, would add 1860-MW, expanding Kyrgyzstan’s energy generation and exportation potential by 5.6 billion kWh annually, according to the World Bank. The upstream project would alter operations across the whole cascade of Kyrgyz dams.

For Kyrgyzstan, Kambar-Ata-1 could cover winter energy needs, freeing Toktogul for summer irrigation releases and reducing reliance on imports. For Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, the facility could mean more predictable irrigation flows during the summer. However, the project would also increase Kyrgyzstan’s upstream control over the river, and could increase tensions with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in dry years if Kyrgyzstan prioritizes independent energy security over the barter agreement.