Moldova’s Parliamentary Election Tests EU’s Resolve Against Russian Influence

A summit of the European Political Community (EPC) in Moldova. (Raimond Spekking)

Moldova will vote in a momentous parliamentary election on September 28 that will determine whether the country further integrates into the European Union or pivots towards Russia’s orbit.

The election has critical implications for Moldova’s democratic trajectory, European security in the face of Russian aggression, and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s objective to re-establish a Russian sphere of influence in the former Soviet Union. Moldova’s geographical location between Ukraine and NATO member Romania makes political control over its government a key strategic objective for Russia. According to POLITICO, the Kremlin is conducting a sophisticated disinformation campaign and investing hundreds of millions of euros to buy key votes to sway the electoral outcome in its favor.

Polls suggest that the pro-Russian opposition will succeed in ousting the EU-aligned Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), which currently holds the governing majority, according to POLITICO. Maia Sandu, the President of Moldova and leader of PAS, described this as “the most consequential election” in Moldova’s history in a speech to the European Parliament in early September. If the pro-Russian opposition wins a majority in the election, the EU and Ukraine may begin to view Moldova as a security threat, jeopardizing its hard-earned progress toward becoming a stable democracy. 

A former Soviet republic that gained independence in 1991, Moldova is a small country of only 2.4 million people. Under Sandu’s leadership, Moldova has strengthened its democratic institutions and, in October 2024, narrowly passed a referendum to join the EU, according to The Guardian. Integrating with the EU would limit Russia’s influence in Moldova, limiting the Kremlin’s ability to weaken and divide Western nations. 

Sandu warned that if the pro-Russian opposition succeeds in the election, Russia will undo Moldova’s progress toward Western integration and use Moldova as a “launch pad” for hybrid warfare in the EU and as a strategic proponent in its war against Ukraine. 

In the week leading up to the election, Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) stepped up its disinformation campaign by stirring up anti-European and anti-Ukrainian sentiments, according to the Institute for the Study of War. The SVR falsely claimed that NATO troops were gathering at the Moldova-Romania border and that NATO is planning a “landing” from Odessa, Ukraine, to intimidate Transnistria, a Russian-allied separatist region in eastern Moldova. In reality, British and French soldiers are gathered in Romania for regular NATO exercises, according to the Institute for the Study of War. The SVR also claimed that the EU plans to falsify the election results in favor of PAS, the pro-EU majority party. Russian intelligence officers are reportedly training Moldovan politicians to generate violent protests and stage provocations, regardless of the election outcome. 

The Kremlin’s information warfare and vote-buying tactics in Moldova are reminiscent of its previous disinformation operations in Georgia and during Moldova’s 2024 presidential elections, according to the European Council on Foreign Relations. 

Russia’s operations in Moldova this week are unfolding against the backdrop of Russian drones entering NATO airspace in several countries, prompting direct NATO military responses and testing the alliance’s resolve, according to AP News.

Moldova’s parliamentary election has broad implications for the country’s future and the resilience of key Western alliances in the face of Russian aggression and hybrid warfare. If the pro-Russian opposition ousts the pro-EU majority, Moldova will drift into Russia’s sphere of influence and effectively end the process of EU integration. Supporters of Sandu’s pro-EU party argue that it will also set a precedent for increased Russian meddling in European politics and put Eastern Europe on a path of democratic backsliding.