French National Assembly Ousts Prime Minister François Bayrou. Can His Successor Turn Things Around?

Newly appointed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu and President Emmanuel Macron (Heute).

France is in a political and economic crisis, as former Prime Minister François Bayrou was ousted by a vote of no confidence on September 8 over his budget proposal. The vote marked the end of the fourth government since President Emmanuel Macron was reelected in 2022 and the second since he called a snap election in 2024. 

In that election, the left-wing New Popular Front finished first, winning 182 seats out of the 577 in the French National Assembly. They were closely followed by Macron’s centrist Ensemble Coalition with 162 seats and the far-right National Rally and its allies, who won 143 seats.

Since then, Macron has rejected calls from both the left and far-right to select a prime minister of their choosing. He instead appointed Michel Barnier—a member of the center-right Republicans—as prime minister before his efforts to force through his budget failed, and the opposition parties voted against him in a vote of no confidence.

Some speculated that the two governments’ failure would convince Macron to either resign or work with one of the two major blocs to find a candidate who could survive a vote of no confidence. 

However, Macron doubled down by appointing longtime ally Sébastien Lecornu as prime minister. Lecornu is a staunch loyalist to Macron, having served as defense minister for the last three years. He was considered for the prime ministership before Macron ultimately decided to choose Bayrou due to his experience.

Lecornu—like his predecessors—finds himself in a tricky situation, trying to gain enough support to maintain his government. Fitch worsened the situation by downgrading France’s credit rating from A+ to AA-, stating that, despite a stable outlook, the lower rating was due to political instability and rising debt-to-GDP ratio. The other two major accrediting firms, Moody and S&P, are expected to release their credit ratings at the end of October and November, respectively, which could cause even more trouble for Lecornu if they also decrease their ratings.

According to Reuters, Lecornu has stated that he has had “frank” discussions with the Socialists, Greens, and Communists, and he has said that “The future budget may not fully reflect my convictions ... In fact, that's almost certain!” These talks surrounded the possibility of raising the wealth tax on the ultra-rich, which could cause a loss of support from the Republicans, as they believe such taxes would only worsen the economic situation in France.

The National Rally has seemed open to working with Lecornu. However, they encouraged him to govern differently than his predecessors, with their leader, Marine Le Pen, stating, “If he continues the same politics, he’ll fall.”

The public has also not responded favorably to Lecornu, demonstrating an initial positive approval rating of just 16 percent. In comparison, Michel Barnier started with a 37 percent positive approval, and François Bayrou garnered a 20 percent positive approval, demonstrating the French public’s increasing dissatisfaction with their government.

If France’s political crisis does not end soon, it is almost certain that its economic situation will continue to worsen, causing the country to descend further into chaos. With Macron choosing to double down on a centrist candidate, this may be his last chance to turn things around for his coalition before he is squeezed out by the left and far-right.