Russia and Ukraine Face Potential Discord and Demoralization

Ukraine’s top general Valery Zaluzhny took President Volodymyr Zelensky by surprise when he published an article in The Economist articulating his own strategic goals on 1 November, a move that exacerbated already sour relations between the two leaders (Wikimedia Commons).

Editor’s Note: This piece was originally written by Goran Pope in December 2023. We are publishing it now to offer readers deeper context on President Zelensky’s decision to fire his top general, Valery Zaluzhny, on February 8, 2024. Please see Goran’s more recent work on Zaluzhny’s firing here.

Political discord among Ukraine’s leadership has driven rumors of a potential split between its civilian government and its military’s top brass since a member of the Ukrainian Parliament made a post on social media criticizing its leader on 26 November. The post, made by Parliament member Mariana Bezuhla from President Volodymyr Zelensky’s political party, criticizes Ukraine’s Commander-In-Chief, Valery Zaluzhny, for failing to offer a comprehensive war plan among other things. She called for a leadership change.

However, the post follows a string of events indicating higher-level disagreements. On 1 November, Zaluzhny published an article in The Economist discussing the current state of the war, what would be required to win, and how he sees the situation evolving. 

He places an emphasis on an urgent need for augmented air power, additional mobilization, and a better ability to wage technological warfare. Without these, the war will devolve into “positional warfare,” which means an effective stalemate as neither side can make substantial gains, not unlike the trench warfare of World War I. Moreover, he mentioned that Russia, while battered, retains an overall advantage.

Zelensky was not informed beforehand that Zaluzhny would publish the article. As the Ukraine-friendly White House runs low on money that President Biden can unilaterally send in  aid packages, Zelensky will need to make his case to Congress for more Ukraine aid. 

However, with  the Israel-Hamas War already diverting Congressional attention, Ukraine’s stalling counteroffensive, and souring US public support for more aid, Zelensky faces difficulty securing further aid. . 

Zaluzhny’s article stating that further progress is unlikely simply reinforces skepticism in further aid, making Zelensky’s job harder, causing speculation of a growing rift, although the two deny any exists. 

Corruption at the higher levels of government has also decreased general trust between Ukraine’s leaders, adding to the rumors. On 6 November, Zelensky unceremoniously fired the  commander of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces with no explanation. Another political rival, Volodymyr Aryev, a member of European Solidarity, the party that Zelensky defeated in the 2019 presidential race, also briefly made unsubstantiated claims that Zelensky had Zaluznhy’s dismissal papers ready to go, which caused a brief panic before the post was taken down.

Some or all of this is part of Russia’s targeted campaign to sow division in Ukrainian ranks. Reflecting a  plan dubbed “Maidan-3,” named for Ukrainian protests in 2014 that ousted their pro-Russia president, they’re focusing their propaganda efforts most heavily on November and December, when morale will already be low from Winter stalemates and cold.

But, Russia has been having divisions of its own. As the war devolves into positional warfare, and with Russia’s higher casualty rate, it needs increasing amounts of manpower. However, it hasn’t been rotating out its soldiers from the front lines, often coercing conscripts who’ve just finished their terms into signing extended  contracts. The situation has led to protest from the relatives of these conscripts, and  about 58% of Russians opposing another mobilization order. 

With the war devolving into positional warfare, it will likely become a war of attrition where each side must outlast the other. With discord and demoralization shaking both, whichever can retain support will enter the new year with a significant advantage over the other.