Fico's Comeback: The Controversial Rise of Slovakia's Former Prime Minister

Slovakian populist and former Prime Minister Robert Fico appears poised to win Slovakia’s upcoming election (Wikimedia Commons)

Former Prime Minister Robert Fico and his Smer-Social Democracy party are poised to win Slovakia’s early parliamentary election on September 30 and reverse political, economic, and military support to Ukraine. Politico’s polling average projects Smer winning 21% of the vote and leading overall as of September 19. After five years of political turbulence, Fico’s radical populism resonates with many struggling Slovaks. Should Fico’s Smer party win power, Slovak relations with NATO and the EU could be threatened.  

Fico served as Slovak prime minister from 2006-2010 and 2012-2018. Since public outrage forced Fico to resign in the wake of the 2018 murder of journalist Han Kuciak, Slovakia has seen four prime ministers and endemic political instability. 

The 2020 dysfunctional coalition government rallied increasing support for Fico. However, Fico’s sidestep of criminal investigation led Grigorij Meseznikov of the Institute for Public Affairs to state, “His return to power will be a problem for Slovakia in every aspect.”

Slovakia was the first nation to defend Ukrainian sovereignty with air defense missiles and fighter jets in February 2022. Fico, however, stands in contrast to established Slovak policy. In an interview with the Associated Press prior to a campaign rally in Michalovce, he promised “If Smer is a part of the government, we won’t send any arms or ammunition to Ukraine anymore.” Despite national allegiance, public and political opposition to NATO is on the rise in Slovakia. 

The intensification of pro-Moscow propaganda infiltrating Slovak media aligns with Fico’s campaign against immigration and support for Ukrainian grain import embargoes to ease the distress of local farmers. Fico argues that  Western weaponry will not change the course of the war in Ukraine. 

Slovak politician and European Parliament vice president Michal Šimečka warns that a Smer victory would “threaten the emergence of another isolated regime within the EU, such as the one built by Viktor Orban in Hungary” as Slovak democracy declines. 

Fico’s rallies reflect the Russian narrative of the long-term causes of the war in Ukraine, including Putin’s baseless claim that Zelenskyy’s government operates as a “Nazi state” from which ethnic Russians need protection. With faith in liberal democracy in decline, Fico’s projected win bears political and socioeconomic ramifications beyond Slovak borders.