Fall of the Farmers: the Meteoric Rise and Demise of the Farmer-Citizen Movement

Pieter Omtzigt; Holland’s new kingmaker, or merely a phase? (Wikimedia Commons)

A new anti-establishment party in the Netherlands has surged to lead polling ahead of  November’s general elections, pushing aside the insurgent Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB).. The right-wing upstart BBB took first place in the Netherlands’ provincial elections this past spring, riding a surge of popular dissatisfaction with the government’s climate policies. Their rural voters disapproved of a government plan to limit nitrogen emissions, viewing the policy as a threat to the nation’s cattle industry. However, the BBB has now fallen to less than 10 percent in the polls ahead of November’s parliamentary elections. Meanwhile, another new anti-establishment political party seems to be drawing attention instead.

The newly-founded New Social Contract has recently gained ground in public polling and is projected to win between 23 and 46 seats in the 150-seat House of Representatives, the more powerful lower house of Parliament. Led by conservative Pieter Omtzigt, the party split from the Christian Democrats, a junior coalition partner in the current administration, and claims “[to] want to realize [our] ideals, not power for power’s sake.” Omtzigt has expressed a disinterest in the premiership, though his split from the Christian Democrats may represent his ambition to take a seat in the Dutch cabinet. Lacking influence within his former party, he would have likely failed to win an important cabinet position in a government dominated by the Christian Democrats. 

Omtzigt gained prominence for his part in exposing government misconduct in a 2021 child benefits scandal. In that incident, the Dutch tax agency racially profiled thousands of families, accusing them of benefits fraud, which in turn forced many to repay their benefits and slide into poverty. The New Social Contract advocates for “good governance” and “livelihood security,” promoting reform of the Euro, sustainable access to food, and a resolution to the Netherlands’ housing crisis. The party also argues for changes to the structure of Dutch democracy, including a Constitutional Court as a check on governmental power, and for the use of provincial party lists to elect members of Parliament, as opposed to the current setup where members of Parliament are elected by proportional representation from nationwide lists. In short, Omtzigt’s party is a reformist one, promising to turn the page on an unpopular status quo while ruling out a coalition with the far-right.

However, the New Social Contract’s growing popularity is bad news for the Farmer-Citizen Movement. As an agrarian party, the BBB shares its rural, conservative voter base with the Contract. While other center-right, far-right, and even center-left parties have seen a slump in the polls after the creation of the New Social Contract in August 2023, none have suffered to the degree of the BBB. In fact, the retiring Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s three junior coalition partners—the Christian Democrats, Christian Union, and Democrats 66—are polling at a combined 10 percent, while Rutte’s People’s Party languishes at around 15 percent. The Contract currently leads the polls at 20 percent, with a red-green alliance between more traditional Greens and Social Democrats a few points behind. This alliance is led by outgoing European Union Climate Chief Frans Timmermans, a vocal opponent of the climate-sceptic BBB. 

With only a quarter of voters indicating their support for parties currently in power, a new governing coalition seems likely. An expanded right-of-center bloc that incorporates the populist upstarts is a possibility, but with the Contract at odds with the far-right, some centrist points may prove necessary.
Only time will tell if the Contract is successful, as the BBB has seen a rapid and precipitous drop in support from its peak in this spring’s provincial elections. The short-lived success of the right-wing populist Forum for Democracy (FvD) may also be a cautionary tale. Despite winning a dramatic victory in 2019 provincial elections, the FvD has become nearly irrelevant, marred by its MPs’ controversial statements and polling in the low-single digits. In such a crowded field, the future remains uncertain for upstart parties like the New Social Contract.