Beleaguered Voters Dump New Zealand’s Labour Government

Incoming National Party Prime Minister Christopher Luxon defeated New Zealand’s Labour government in October 14 elections (Wikimedia Commons). 

New Zealand’s center-left government lost its majority to a coalition of conservatives after six years in power in parliamentary elections on October 14. The election was seen as a referendum on the Labour Party’s response to the coronavirus, which has brought both acclaim and criticism from the public. That response, which involved a “zero-Covid” strategy from which final restrictions were removed only two months ago, minimized deaths to 3,249 out of a population of over five million.

As the pandemic wore on, the strategy faced growing criticism as the economy struggled and international travel became nearly impossible. In a March 2022 incident, a group of demonstrators outside Parliament set fire to their belongings to protest the rising cost of living. With popular discontent growing, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern resigned in January 2023, citing burnout. Since then, mortgage rates have risen to 5.5 percent, while inflation remains stubbornly at around six percent in general and 12 percent for food.

Newly-elected Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has led the Labour Party in the nine months since Ardern’s resignation. During his term, Hipkins directed New Zealand’s response to the pandemic. He has conceded defeat, stating, “I gave it my all to turn the tide of history, but alas, it was not enough.” 

Despite Labour campaigning for free dental care and scrapping taxes on produce, and though their approach to the pandemic may have saved up to 12,000 lives, Auckland bartender Alex Wareham has described the situation as “damned if they did and damned if they didn’t.” The New Zealand government was left with merely a choice of crises, inevitably angering some base of voters. With the pandemic fading from voters’ memories, the election results suggest they decided to punish the Labour government for post-pandemic economic distress instead of praising them for the lives saved thanks to their COVID response.

The major opposition party, the center-right National Party, now has the opportunity to form a government. Its leader, businessman Christopher Luxon, has declared the beginning of “a mandate to take New Zealand forward.” After winning about 40 percent of the vote, the National Party could form a coalition with the libertarian ACT (formerly the Association of Consumers and Taxpayers) or nationalist New Zealand First parties. Those two smaller parties have clashed at times, leaving the eventual makeup of the National Party’s coalition uncertain. An opposing coalition led by the Labour Party is highly unlikely, as its support has been halved compared to the last parliamentary election, leaving it with only 25 percent of the vote.

The National Party’s need to build a coalition derives from New Zealand’s electoral system. The government relies on mixed-member proportional representation, which incorporates both constituency representatives elected in single-member districts and those from party lists allocated based on national vote shares. The Maori, New Zealand’s indigenous peoples, are reserved seven seats in Parliament that are elected only by registered Maori voters. To ensure proportionality, additional seats called overhang seats may be added to Parliament when parties win “too many” districts. As election talliers begin to count special votes (votes by those who registered late or voted outside of their constituency), the number of seats in Parliament could grow to 124, forcing the National Party to cobble together a larger coalition.

Results show that National holds 50 seats compared to Labour’s 34. Since ACT has won 11 seats, they and National, with a combined 61 seats, may be able to form a coalition without risking tensions with New Zealand First. Labour’s potential allies, the Green and Maori Parties, hold a combined 18 seats, leaving the combined number of seats held by left-of-center parties at just 52. Though the Maori Party is a former coalition partner of National, Luxon has declared that the party now lacks “philosophical alignment” with the center-right. The party, named for New Zealand’s indigenous inhabitants, has criticized the electoral procedure for failing to properly register Maori voters and providing insufficient documents to quickly process their votes.

With the National Party now set to form a majority coalition, it has promised tax cuts and the reintroduction of boot camps for troubled youths. These boot camps, abandoned by previous governments, are intended as a response to rising violent crime. Though the party’s programs may be controversial, much of their rhetoric should come as little surprise to observers of conservative parties elsewhere. Voters may have decided a step to the right was the best option to stave off New Zealand’s post-COVID societal woes.