OPINION: For Now, Putin Will Remain in Power

Exiled Russian oligarch and fierce Kremlin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky. His punishment at the hands of the Putin regime serves as a powerful example for those that seek to oppose him (Wikimedia Commons).

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has generated a degree of domestic dissent within Russia, and questions of possible regime change are popular in Western circles, even from standing presidents. 

Whether for economic interests, solidarity with the Ukrainian people, or general aversion to what is seen as an unnecessary war, many Russians are either privately or publicly opposed to the war in Ukraine. Whether and how this opposition will translate into alternative decisions by the Kremlin or a change in leadership is not so clear, however.

What is clear is that, short of a popular uprising, political change would most likely be led by groups outside of the government of President Vladimir Putin. Which non-government actors are most likely to support or organize an opposition, though, is yet to be seen. 

Organized political opposition under the leadership of Alexei Navalny is perhaps the first source of political change that many would think of.  However, in March the Russian government increased Navalny’s prison sentence by nine years after he was convicted of fraud.  Currently, Navalny communicates via proxy and employees who run his social media account, limiting the reach and influence he wields.

The government strictly controls Russian media, and its biased coverage of the war has successfully inundated the Russian people with misinformation. Traditional sources of media such as television and radio are controlled by the state, and a concerted Western media blackout has prevented those sources from reaching the vast majority of Russian people.

The military, often an obvious place looked to for sources of revolution, is also controlled by Putin.  Former President and Putin ally Dmitry Medvedev currently serves as Deputy Chairman of the Security Council, and all other top positions have been personally chosen by Putin.  Putin has also consolidated control of the Federal Protective Service (FPO) and Federal Security Service (FSB), the main purveyors of political domestic security. Putin’s grip on the military, already embattled with the conflict in Ukraine, is thus total, and dissent is not tolerated.

Finally, what about the oligarchs? These infamous elites control a sizable portion of the private wealth in Russia, with a 2013 report by Credit Suisse finding that 35% of Russia’s private wealth is owned by the richest 110 individuals.  Forbes identifies 68 of the 83 Russian billionaires as oligarchs, defined as those who primarily gained their wealth from the chaotic selling-off of Russian state assets during the 1990s.  

Although these oligarchs control a vast majority of private wealth, Putin’s has shown great ability to influence current oligarchs and punish those who act against his interests, such as the now-exiled Mikhail Khodorkovsky who saw most of his $15 billion net worth evaporate after the Russian government dismantled his energy company. Most other oligarchs still in Russia closely follow the Kremlin line, for their own safety and security. 

Thus, overall, despite rumblings of dissent, Vladimir Putin’s hold on Russia looks secure, at least for the short-term. Depending on how the war in Ukraine unfolds, though, the situation could change very rapidly. 

Matthew Kluge is a writer for the Eastern Europe and Russia section at The Caravel. The views expressed in this article belong solely to the author.