Central American Countries Prepare for an Increase in Migrants

A caravan of Honduran migrants travels to Mexico in 2018 (Historie)

During a meeting of the Central American Commission for Migration Directors (OCAM) on February 22, Guatemala unveiled a plan to address migrant caravans expected in the coming weeks. Guillermo Díaz, director-general of the Guatemalan Migration Institute, presented the plan, which addressed three main points: first, protecting regional security; second, attending to instances of mass intercontinental migration; and third, developing solutions at the regional level that consider mass migration.

Although caravans still represent a small fraction of Central American migration, Central American migrants increasingly use them—they are a safer alternative to travelling alone or with smugglers. The OCAM proposal emerged after a caravan of more than 9,000 migrants, mostly from Honduras, set off towards the United States in mid-January. Guatemalan security forces confronted the caravan at the country’s southern border, and after police used tear gas and batons to disperse the group, the caravan disbanded and most migrants returned to Honduras. 

Central American countries expect similar caravans to travel through the region to the United States in the coming weeks. The devastation left in the wake of hurricanes Eta and Iota, which tore through Guatemala and Honduras in November, partly drive the mass migrations. Other contributing factors are COVID-19 related economic hardship and the hope that the Biden administration will be more welcoming to asylum seekers. 

In response to the Central Americans travelling towards the United States, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador warned that the U.S. government is not going to “immediately regularize all migrants.” He cautioned people to not fall prey to human traffickers and to stay away from cartel turf in northern Mexico, where at least 14 Guatemalan migrants were murdered in January. 

Not all potential migrants have a choice to stay put, however. A Honduran family that travelled to Mexico by foot recalled how there was no work or money in a country battered by disease and natural disasters. “Hondurans aren’t dying from COVID, they’re dying from hunger,” one said. 

South and Central American migrants often confront more resistance in Mexico and Central America than in the United States. The response of OCAM and national governments to future caravans will determine if these groups reach the United States. If they do reach the U.S.-Mexico border, it will be an early test of the Biden administration's approach to immigration. President Joe Biden has already rolled back many Trump-era immigration policies, including the “Remain in Mexico” policy, which required asylum-seekers to remain in Mexico while their asylum claims were processed. How he responds to large groups of migrants seeking refuge in the United States will indicate how big of a priority immigration is for the new administration.