Following a wave of nationwide protests calling for her return, the popular opposition leader María Corina Machado returned home on October 25 after nearly a year in exile. Huge crowds of tens of thousands gathered across the country in celebration, forming caravans along the hundreds-of-miles-long journey from Barquisimeto, in the northern state of Lara, to Caracas, the national capital.
Machado was awarded last year’s Nobel Peace Prize for promoting democracy in Venezuela while the country was under the leadership of former authoritarian leader Nicolás Maduro. She had hoped to return to help lead Venezuela after the U.S. seized and arrested Maduro, but the White House did not support her. Instead, she says that she was repeatedly blocked from going home. This time, however, the U.S. did not intervene. Machado is now back and calling for elections, where she could be a top contender against the current Trump-backed leader, Delcy Rodríguez.
The past few weeks have seen a U.S.-led dialogue process between Venezuela’s government, led by President Rodríguez, and an opposition delegation led by Dinorah Figuera. The negotiations, from which Machado has been sidelined, have focused on achieving long-term institutional reform but have thus far produced no commitments on an election date. Machado’s return could drastically intensify the pressure on Rodríguez to convene elections. To date, the U.S. has been advocating a slower approach that prioritizes reforming Venezuela’s institutions through dialogue between the government and opposition. Machado, who looks set to remain excluded from this process, is demanding a hard deadline for elections in July 2027.
On October 26, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed that Venezuela’s electoral infrastructure needs to undergo reforms in order to support valid elections. The negotiations between the Venezuelan Government and opposition parties have worked toward reforming the Supreme Tribunal of Justice, which is expected to be in place by the end of the year, along with a new National Electoral Council (CNE) shortly thereafter. Once those institutions are replaced, Rodríguez will have to declare a permanent vacancy in the presidency, triggering a six-month period for new elections. The CNE will then determine the date of the election.
Machado’s presence could also inject some uncertainty into the alliance between the Venezuelan government and the Trump administration. In September, Machado criticized an agreement that gave Washington sweeping influence over Venezuela’s oil sector. If elected, she will likely insist on greater autonomy for Venezuela, even as she seeks to preserve positive ties with the U.S. The lack of political legitimacy, compounded by an economy that continues to rapidly deteriorate, has produced widespread frustration and discontent that has become a source of social instability in its own right.
On October 29, Machado held her first press conference since returning, where she lauded the U.S. Government, namely President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, for opening the “gateway to freedom” for Venezuela. During the public address, she also expressed her desire to make Venezuela the “greatest ally the United States will have in the region.”
Looking ahead, a fourth round of dialogue is due to begin on November 11 between the Venezuelan government and part of the opposition. It remains to be seen whether Machado regards the dialogue process as legitimate or instead seeks to apply direct pressure on Rodríguez through a protest campaign.