Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) clinched a decisive victory in Delhi’s legislative assembly elections on February 5, defeating the incumbent Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) government. The results come as a major blow to India’s embattled opposition, ending nearly three decades of non-BJP rule in the nation’s capital region.
The Times of India reports that the BJP won 48 out of 70 seats in Delhi’s legislative assembly, well over the 36-seat minimum required to form a government. The AAP lost a total of 40 seats, including that of top party leader and former Chief Minister of Delhi, Arvind Kejriwal. The Indian National Congress, once the dominant party in Delhi and broader politics, failed to win any seats for the third cycle in a row.
According to the BBC, the BJP’s sudden ascent in Delhi has its roots in increasing voter disillusionment with the AAP. The AAP (Hindi for “Common Man’s Party”) came into being in 2011 under the leadership of anti-corruption activist Arvind Kejriwal, who campaigned on a platform of anti-corruption and middle-class welfare. In the fourteen years since, the AAP has emerged as one of North India’s key parties, retaining power in the National Capital Territory almost consecutively since the 2013 legislative elections.
In the early years of its tenure, the AAP achieved high-profile policy and electoral successes, overhauling the city’s government schools, electricity systems, and primary healthcare services. Delhi voters overwhelmingly endorsed the party’s mandate in subsequent legislative assembly elections, including as recently as five years ago; the AAP swept the 2020 elections, winning 62 out of 70 seats.
Despite being a relative political newcomer, the party also enjoyed electoral victories outside of Delhi, expanding its rule to nearby Punjab in the 2022 state assembly elections. These successes seemingly cemented the AAP’s status as an up-and-coming national force.
In recent years, however, the AAP’s popularity has waned among Delhiites. The Deccan Herald reports that the party’s signature welfare programs, particularly in education and healthcare, did not stand the test of time. Chronic operational issues, including drug and staffing shortages, have severely impaired Aam Aadmi Mohalla Clinics, a free primary care service aimed at the urban poor. On the education front, drop-out rates among upper-level students rose by nearly 10 percentage points between the 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 school years. Delhi government schools have also faced allegations of artificially inflating exam scores under the AAP’s leadership, redirecting underperforming students to alternative programs.
Per the New York Times, headline-grabbing issues have also persisted under the AAP’s leadership. Delhi’s air pollution levels continue to rank among the worst in the world, and safe drinking water is in increasingly short supply due to extreme river contamination. Infrastructure remains an issue for residents, with poor road conditions regularly obstructing transportation. The AAP has also faced criticism for its muted response to 2020 communal violence in Delhi.
In addition to policy shortcomings, Arvind Kejriwal and the wider AAP faced two major scandals in the lead-up to the elections. First, India’s federal financial crimes division, the BJP-led Enforcement Directorate (ED), arrested Kejriwal shortly before the 2024 general elections, alleging corruption. The charges were highly controversial, with critics and opposition leaders roundly condemning them as politically motivated. Citing the timing of the case, they argued that Kejriwal’s arrest was part of a larger BJP crackdown against political opponents. Kejriwal eventually left prison on bail and resigned as chief minister as a demonstration of integrity, saying that he would “receive justice from the people’s court” in the February elections. Nonetheless, activists like Anna Haraze maintain that the incident dented the AAP’s image as the party of anti-corruption. The Deccan Herald further argues that, even for voters who believed in Kejriwal’s innocence, his party’s frequent clashes with the federal government did not bode well for resident needs and political efficiency. Delhi’s specific governmental structure comprises a federally appointed lieutenant governor and elected legislative assembly, meaning that cooperation between the local and central governments is essential.
In a further blow to the AAP’s reputation, a second scandal emerged in late 2024 regarding the official Delhi Chief Minister’s residence, 6 Flagstaff Bungalow. Luxurious renovations to the bungalow started under Kejriwal, who inhabited the home until his October 2024 resignation, racking up exorbitant sums of public funds. The BJP has accused Kejriwal of misusing taxpayer money and violating building norms to construct a “sheesh mahal,” or ultra-lavish residence, for his own use. The claims, which are currently under investigation, undermined Kejriwal’s longtime persona as a “man of the people,” fuelling anti-incumbency sentiment.
The BJP capitalized on these failures throughout a highly targeted campaign, framing itself as the party of change. Analysts credit the party’s immense financial resources, political prowess, and welfare-oriented messaging, including recent tax cuts for the middle class, as additional contributors to its success.
The BJP’s win is particularly consequential, given that Delhi has long represented a major opposition linchpin. While Modi’s party achieved major electoral successes in other states, Delhi long eluded it. The BJP’s recent victory thus raises fundamental questions about the future of opposition efforts––not only for the AAP but also for other anti-BJP parties.