Donald Trump’s second administration is bound to change what is arguably the United States’ thorniest foreign policy debate today: aid for Ukraine. Key actors both in Russia and Ukraine have expressed optimism over his election. Trump has previously stated he could end the conflict in 24 hours, though no one has provided details on how he would accomplish that, per the Associated Press.
On paper, there is evidence that Trump will do whatever is in his power to limit aid to the war-torn democracy. According to CNN, he has floated the idea of pressuring Ukraine into negotiating an end to the conflict by withholding U.S. aid. President Biden has thus pledged to fund Ukraine as much as possible before he leaves office. The Institute for the Study of War comments that a sudden termination of support would be disastrous for Ukraine, as they currently face one of Russia’s most aggressive offensives of the war.
The Washington Post reports that Russian elites believe Trump will be a much friendlier leader with whom they could discuss a “new division of the world.” Their optimism is rooted in precedent. Trump has consistently praised Putin since his first campaign, writes POLITICO. During his first term in the White House, the House of Representatives impeached Trump for leveraging U.S. aid to Ukraine to pressure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky into finding dirt on Joe Biden during the campaign cycle. In general, Trump endorses a more isolationist stance on foreign policy; he stated in a rally he would allow Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to delinquent members of NATO. In response, NATO members have taken measures to “Trump-proof” the alliance, CNN reports.
However, some Ukrainians have expressed optimism about Trump’s election. President Zelensky congratulated Trump on his win on social media, and later made a statement that he held “a productive conversation, a good conversation” with Trump, adding that he would bring about the “kind of America that Europe needs.” Kyiv Post reports that Ukrainian servicemen’s reactions on the front have been more mixed, with some fearing what he may do, and others hoping his “peace through strength” approach will deter Russia. According to The Economist, other Ukrainian officials seem to suggest any change would be an improvement compared to Biden’s costly hesitations, including preventing Ukraine from striking inside Russia.
Trump will likely choose between two paths. One, recommended by Vice President-Elect J.D. Vance, is favorable to Russia, and would include freezing current front lines where they are without any repercussions to Putin. The other, recommended by Trump’s former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in the Wall Street Journal, lays out a more aggressive stance toward Russia, benefitting Ukraine. Trump remains a wildcard, and it remains unclear which path he will pursue for peace in Europe.